Posts

Experience, Mathematics and Discretionary Trading : Why a Mentor is Vital When Doing Manual Trading

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I have always thought that one of the most important aspects for success in forex trading is to understand and completely know the expected profitability and especially the expected draw downs of the systems or techniques we are using. In automated or mechanical trading this seems pretty straight forward since simulations allow us to have a good idea of how our system behaved in the past (if the simulations are done in a reliable manner) while in manual trading it is quite a mistery how this is exactly achieved. If you are trading a discretionary technique in which there is no "mechanical set of rules" perse , then it becomes very hard to know the expected profit and draw down goals you should have in mind. On today's article I will share with you what I have found out when speaking to manual traders (those who failed and those who succeeded) and what they use to achieve this "determination of system characteristics" which is so necessary for long term success. ...

Watukushay No.5 and JPY crosses : First Encouraging Results

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When I coded Watukushay No.5 my idea was to build a universal breakout system that could be used to exploit a wide array of market inefficiencies in the foreign exchange market. After discovering 10 year profitable backtesting settings for 6 different currency pairs it seemed that this system was able to achieve this goal with similar profitability and good profit to draw down ratios on all of these different instruments. However it then became clear that the system was missing to conquer one formidable enemy which has eluded me since I first started my ventures in long term profitable trading : the JPY crosses. Within this article I will share with you some of my first profitable results on a JPY cross using Watukushay No.5. The JPY crosses are definitely hard to trade and to exploit mechanically and the reasons why this is the case are many. Perhaps the most important reason is the general lack of liquidity of these instruments which causes wild swings and unpredictable behavior with...

To Look or Not to Look ? : Setting and Forgetting in Automated Trading.

We all fear that moment when we open up our trading terminals to find out that some portion of our profits or even worse, our initial investment capital, has been wiped out. Looking into a trading account continuously is one of the hardest things to do when getting involved in automated trading and certainly the emotions and reactions that take place when we do so lead to many of the devastating consequences that make profitable automated trading a very hard thing to achieve for most new and inexperienced traders. For many people new to automatic trading execution the answer to this problem - in which looking into losing trades makes them lose control - is a simple "I'd rather not look". On today's post I am going to discuss this issue a little bit and why you cannot expect to be successful just by "setting and forgetting" and "avoiding to look" when using algorithmic trading systems. There is something very hard about looking into a losing account...

Are you Ready to Make it in Automated Trading ? : Five Questions you Should Ask Yourself Before Expecting Success

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The truth is that we all want to get into forex automated trading systems and reap a profit from the market time after time after time without any concern for draw down periods, eventual loses of profitability or such other problems that may arise from the mere trading of any strategy. These understandable - yet extremely dangerous - attempts to avoid the "bad" parts of trading leads inexperienced people - sadly more often than not - to fall prey to systems that do not have enough evidence of profitability or which have evidence that is simply unreliable. The reasons why people tend to lean towards these systems are actually quite simple, they are not ready yet to achieve long term success in automated trading. During the next few paragraphs I will share with you the five most important questions you should ask yourself to know if you are actually prepared right now to deal with and use long term profitable strategies. The questions attempt to measure your degree of preparati...

Why People Do Not Take Advice : Five Reasons Why Learning From Others is SO Hard in Forex Trading

You have just started trading forex and you feel that this is what you've been looking for your entire life. You then find about automated trading systems and you think - "this cannot get any better". What makes people believe that absurd profit targets are possible and that a hands-free system could turn a few dollars into millions within just a few months or years ? What makes people think they can get away with this when practical experience shows that this has never been the case ? On today's post I will explore the reasons why people - time after time - take bad trading decisions in the forex market and specifically why they neglect advice from more experienced traders who attempt to provide guidance. You will see why following advice in forex trading is so hard and why almost no one will be able to take short cuts through other people's experience. My step father has always been a very intriguing person. A trained medical doctor with more than 30 years of ex...

Volume Based Forex Systems. Can it be Done ?

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When you analyze the forex market one of the first things that becomes clear is that the finding of true volume information is very hard if not actually impossible. Since the forex market has no central exchange it would require a person to track all of the largest banks in the worlds in order to know the real volume and magnitude of the transactions being done. Doing this in a real-time fashion to get volume data like that of stocks or futures would be a gigantic task that would most likely be frustrated by the complexity and "disorganized" nature of the foreign exchange market. So the question becomes, is there any way to measure volume ? is there any way to design a system based on volume information ? During this post I will share with you some of what I have learned about this problem and the best solutions that we have to tackle this issue. Even though there is no such thing as a source of true volume information in forex trading, we could find a property that is correl...

The Biggest Issue of Online Forex Trade Learning Sources : The IMO Problem

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Like most of you, when I first started to learn about forex trading and how to make it in this business my first source of information was the Internet. When I began to learn how to trade the Internet was already flooded with millions of pages with information about trading and dozens of forums with hundreds of posts telling me what I should be doing and how I should be doing it. However after a lot of years have passed I can tell you that this initial "online education" was more detrimental to me and my trading than what it was positive. If I hadn't had access to online learning sources I would have probably started being profitable much earlier. On today's post I will share with you the reasons why I think most online sources are destructive, why they turn out this way and what you can actually do to filter your online learning so that you keep the best and eliminate all of the things out there that are simply misguiding you and probably making your trading far wors...