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Showing posts from May, 2010

Some Trading Advice : Trade What you See

It is incredible to see how many traders out there start calling different future price levels and saying that a certain currency pair will fall or rise in the long term and how another will not, etc. One of the first things that new forex traders are tempted to do is to issue forecasts of future price movements of currencies and act accordingly. On today's post I want to write about this practice and how the forecasting of currency pairs should be avoided if you wish to become successful in currency trading. Particularly I want to pinpoint the dangers and flaws of fundamental forecasting and how trading based entirely on price action - with the application of some sound trading principles - is in my mind the best way to achieve success either in manual trading or in the design of automated trading systems. First of all, it is good to know what I refer to as forecasting. When a person says "The EUR/USD will be 1.60 in 2 years", that is what I call forecasting, an attempt ...

The Atinalla Project - A Well Laid Out Plan For Long Term Capitalization in Forex Trading

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With the development of seven different systems within Asirikuy, the testing of these system on live accounts and the development of adequate tools for draw down analysis. I have realized that it is time for us to start a well laid out plan in Asirikuy for long term capitalization. Up until now, since the performance of joint portfolios was not known there was no clear information of what a "good portfolio" would be and what money adding tactics would work best to ensure that our portfolios would have the best performance over long periods of time. However, after modifying the experts to work with an internal balance solution and analyzing their joint simulations, it is safe to say that we now have a very good idea of what seems to be possible using Asirikuy automated trading systems. Today I am very proud to announce another milest one in the development of Asirikuy, the start of the Atinalla project . This word which - you guessed right - comes from the Quechua language of ...

Forex Expert Advisors : Pro Forex Robot, an Unbiased Review

This article will feature the last of this month's released robots discussing the Pro Forex robot automated trading system. I saved this EA specially for last since there is some very special evidence about the dishonesty and unethical behavior of this seller. However I will leave this for the last bits of the review. First of all - and most importantly - I will evaluate the trading evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence is able to backup the author's claims of profitability. I will then go through the evidence to analyze the Pro Forex Robot trading technique and at last I will give you my opinion about whether or not this expert advisor is worth buying and testing. Can you flip a coin and pull a winner at least one of six times ? We'll see if the website is able to proof that the EA can do this. When you look at the evidence of profitability provided by the author immediately two things come to mind. Backtesting and Martingale. This trading system...

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Money Train, an Unbiased Review

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One of the latest expert advisors released is this system called Forex Money Train. This system claims to give people the ability to get significant profits from the forex market and achieve financial freedom in a short period of time. The system claims large sums of profit like 20-30K per trade and promises traders to win with a 90% of profitable trades. On today's review I will examine the Forex Money Trade expert advisor, I will go through all the evidence presented on the system's website and I will take a look at the system's trading tactic. In the end I will put together all the available evidence and I will tell you if the system is able to backup its claims of profitability and if it is or it is not - in my opinion - worth buying and testing. The Forex Money Train website starts like many other automated trading sites with promises of financial freedom, high winning percentages and market adaptability. However, when it comes to show trading evidence of these claims...

Forex Expert Advisors : The Forex Revolution, an Unbiased Review

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Today its the turn of yet another of the recently released trading systems called "forex revolution". The forex revolution is however not only about systems but about the creation of a community around expert advisor development centered around the experts developed by the revolution's programmers. On today's post I will write my review about the forex revolution, I will go through the community's/expert's website and talk to you about the trading evidence available and if this evidence is able to backup their claims of profitability. I will also evaluate the currently available results and comment on the soundness of the trading strategy used and finally I will tell you whether or not - in my opinon - this system(s) is worth buying and testing. It is a little bit difficult to write a review about a project such as the forex revolution. Since the idea of this website is to build a community about system development, new systems and evidence may arise in the fu...

Forex Expert Advisors : 4x Cash Compounder, an Unbiased Review

One of the most recently released trading systems is the 4x Cash Compounder expert advisor. On today's post I will write a review about this system which will first analyze the evidence provided by the authors and then compare this evidence with the claims made on the website to see if the 4x Cash Compounder can actually prove its claims of profitability. After analyzing if the EA does have enough evidence to backup its claims I will analyze the soundness of the trading tactic used by the system and give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. In the beginning of the website we have very common - yet rarely proven - claim. The website clearly states "A Robot that Works !". Is this actually true ? Does the 4x Cash Compounder has enough evidence to say that it will provide you with profits for a long time into the future ? The website says that the EA works day in and day out, month in and month out. Could all this be true ? And ...

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Ironman, an Unbiased Review

Continuing with the reviewing of automated trading systems that were recently released today I will be writing about a new trading system called Forex Ironman. This expert advisor claims to make a 308% profit in less than 17 months with minimal risk to your trading account. On today's reviewI will analyze the evidence provided by the author of this EA and I will tell you if this evidence is enough to backup the expert advisor's claims of profitability. After this I will also go through the expert's trading evidence and tell you my opinion about the expert's trading tactic and its potential for long term profitability. Finally I will end this review by telling you my opinion about whether or not the Forex Ironman is worth buying and testing. The Forex Ironman starts its website with some very bold claims of profitability as well as an obvious and unethical breach of Marvel Copyright. I understand that it is a good marketing technique to use a currently "fashionable...

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Massacre, an Unbiased Review

Today we are going to take a look at a system that was developed allegedely by a seven figure forex trader. This trading system- named Forex Massacre- claims to be able to do several interesting things like making more than 20K every month or thousands of dollars per trade. Today I am going to go through this system's website analyzing the evidence provided by the author and judging if this evidence is enough to backup the author's claims. After carefully analyzing the whole website I will try to analyze the expert's trading tactic giving you my opinion about the system's like hood of being long term profitable and whether or not this system is worth buying and testing. I can say with total confidence that this forex masscre system seems to be a total insult to customer intelligence. The website talks a lot about the benefits of the system, huge monthly profits, no need for previous knowledge about forex trading, more than 90% winning rate up to date but the system neve...

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Kinetics (FX-Kits), an Unbiased Review

This review will begin a series of posts about the most recently released expert advisor. On this post I want to talk to you about an expert advisor released by a trader named Daniel Su, who appears to be from Singapore. As almost all forex robots, the forex kinetics (FX-Kit) system claims to be capable of generating consistent returns under varied market conditions with absolutely no intervention from the expert's user. On today's review I will go through the expert's website, analyzing the author's claims and evidence and I will tell you if - according to my opinion - this trading system is worth buying and testing. The first sentence on this website already started to bother me as I read the word "guaranteed", expert advisor sellers must be clear in that no profits can be guaranteed and that past performance never guarantees future results. An effort can always be made to ensure that trading systemswill have the pwoer to adapt to changes in market condition...

Making Automated Trading Systems - 6 Tips for Successful System Design

One of the questions I get asked the most is how I come up with and design all my mechanical trading strategies. Several people have wondered how I device my simple criteria for systems and how such simple logic can indeed be successful under today's ever-changing market conditions. However, what fellow traders often don't realize is that my system design is based on some very simple principles anyone could follow to achieve success in automated trading. On today's post I want to give you - fellow traders and system designers - some tips about system design so that you too can benefit from my experience around this area of successful strategy production. Within the next few paragraphs you will find some very practical tips to help you with you design successful automated trading systems. I am absolutely sure that these tips will help you overcome some of the most prominent obstacles in automated trading, avoiding the mistakes that condemn most people who embark on this jour...

From Beginner to Successful Trader : How Long Does it Take ?

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It is not a secret that most people who begin to search for and study forex trading have the goal of becoming indepedent and successful traders in the long term. However, reality is different in the sense that most people who start their journey in forex trading don't end up as successful traders but as frustrated and tired individuals who sacrificed an important amount of their savings trying to get a grip of forex trading. Is there a magic formula to success ? Is there a quicker or slower way to do things ? On today's article I want to write about this very important question that almost all new traders ask : How long does it take to get from being a new trader to a successful one. It is not easy to be a successful forex trader (or a trader in general), it requires patience, concentration, time, energy, intelligence and most importantly, it requires a lot of dedication and perseverance. Most people fall for the promises of quick riches and "easy trading" from many o...

Revisiting the Turtle Trading System - A Portfolio Performance Analysis

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If you have been following my blog for a while then you may be aware of the fact that I have been interested in the development and trading of the Turtle trading system - developed by Richard Denis in the eighties - using automated trading systems. Through the past few years I have made several important developments which began with the simple implementation of systems No.1 and No.2 and the final implementation of the Ayotl trading system which is my fully automated - portfolio enabled - version of the turtle trading system which includes all correlation and trade limiation rules used by the original turtles. Within this post I want to talk to you about my latest analysis of the turtle trading strategy which includes a 10 year performance review of a combined portfolio trading several instruments. When you analyze the performance of the turtle trading system for the past 10 years (jan 2000 to Jan 2010) on separate instruments things do not appear to look that good for most pairs. The ...

Strategy Diversification - Higher Profits... Higher Risks ?

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If you look into the Asirikuy website, one of the main objectives around my development of automated trading systems is to develop experts we can use to makeup a successful porftolio of long term profitable trading systems. Most traders - new and experienced - believe intuitively that adding several strategies to a portfolio will diminish risk in the sense that the possibility to attain significant draw down levels will be reduced. However, through my experience and analysis of portfolio diversification I have found that - although portfolio trading is great - great care must be taken in both the makeup of the systems and the evaluation of the actual risk levels used to avoid catastrophic loses due to a "massive" portfolio failure. During this post I want to talk a little bit about the things you must take into account when designing a portfolio and how risk must be carefully studied to come up with a reasonable "worst case" scenario. Why is portfolio trading great ...

Looking at Losing Accounts - 5 Tips to Get Through Draw Down Periods

I think that perhaps the hardest challenge successful traders must face is the losing account. All successful mechanical systems I know - and also most manual traders - go through extensive periods of draw down which can go from anywhere to a few months to a few years. Most people underestimate the difficulty of having a losing account and having to look at its balance day in and day out. That red number screams "loser" to you and the mere act of opening up your account to trade becomes - sort of - torture. Through today's post I want to give you - fellow trader - a few tips to survive to those long and deep periods of draw down you may get into. I will give you some pointers that have given me the psychological strength to get through draw down periods and reach success in automated trading. Picture yourself after one year of starting to trade your live account. You are currently at a draw down of 10% and you have been losing for most of the year, reaching the last equit...

Proving the Profitability of Scalpers... Not an Easy Thing to Do

One of the things I get most criticized about is my evaluation of trading systems which have small TP and SL targets. People often do not understand the reasons why I do not recommend products that seem to be generating "a lot" of money for traders using them. I have been sent from time to time statements from several EA vendors and from third party users showing the excellent results of some commercial and freely available scalpers and they all look surprised when my replies all say the same thing : "your results are not statistically significant", "your results are not reliable", etc. Today I want to explain a little bit more the problem with scalper profitability and why there is currently no scalper available which has statistically significant and reliable evidence of profitability. For the purpose of this article I will define a scalper as any system that has an average profit target of less than 10 times the spread or which closes positions - in ave...

Steps to Design a Likely Long Term Profitable Trading System

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To tell the truth, making a likely long term profitable trading system is a very difficult thing to do. When you search online for people who attempt to design profitable trading systems you will find that most of them don't have a mechanical, well-thought approach to system design and the final achievements are usually based on an initial "thought" based on repetitive and almost constant modifications to eliminate short term draw down periods which are natural to long term profitable systems. In the end, the result is a set of dangerous systems - sometimes without even accurate simulations abilities - that will put account equity at a very important risk of long term total loss. On today's post I want to write a little bit about my steps in system design and the main characteristics of my mechanical approach to sound trading system development. So where do we start ? You will see that most traders who have never coded a likely long term profitable system will start b...

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Machine Gun, an Unbiased Review

Today I will be revieweing the last of the expert advisors which were released during the past month. This trading system - called forex machine gun - makes some very interesting claims about consistent profitability, controlled risk, normalized returns and non-indicator based trading. During the following paragraphs you will be able to read my review about this trading system starting with a careful analysis of the evidence provided by the authors and the trading tactics used by the system. After carefully looking at all the evidence I will also tell you my views about the like hood of long term profitability for this strategy and whether or not - in my opinion - this system is worth buying and testing. The Forex Machine Gun has the world Martingale all over its website something which made me thing - in the beginning - that this would be another crappy Martingale system that has absolutely no chance of being profitable in the long term. Then I found out that what they meant was actua...

Forex Expert Advisors : Fish Forex Robot, an Unbiased Review

On another review I will be examining the Fish Forex Robot expert advisor today. This trading system- which was released a few weeks ago- claims to be able to generate 3000 to 4000 USD every month spending no more than 5 to 7 minutes a day "monitoring the robot". It also claims to be able to "double your account every month" a very bold claim which the author should be able to backup. Within the next few paragraphs I will analyze the trading evidence provided by the author and I will see if it is able to sustain her claims. I will also look into the expert's trading tactics and I will tell you if the Fish Forex Robot has a high like hood of achieving long term profitability and whether or not it is worth buying and testing. In the beginning you see a big box that tells you that you have two options. The first one is 3-4K of stable income from Fish Forex robot or vague promises of fortune-making strategies. However this is just very misleading and one of the mark...

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Maximizer, an Unbiased Review

Today I will be revieweing one of the new trading systems which has been released over the past few weeks. This trading system - called Forex Maximizer - promises you will be earning an income every month in no time, with consistent results that will "not make you a millionaire" but will allow you to "quit the search for a new 9 to 5 job". As always I will analyze the evidence provided by the author and I will see if they are truly able to backup the claims made on the website. By analyzing the evidence I will also be able to tell you the soundness of the trading system's tactics and whether or not the system has a high like hood of being long term profitable. In the end I will give you my fully unbiased opinion of whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. The Forex Maximizer website starts with the usual marketing hype that we have come to love so much. It talks about the mighty and mystical gurus that don't want you to know their ...