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Showing posts from May, 2008

The Diversification Myth

It is very popular in the world of finance and economics to advise people to diversify. The usual phrase "don't put all your eggs in one basket" is usually cited as a great exemplification of the diversification principle. In short, diversification implies the investment on not only one, but several financial instruments in order to reduce risk. This may, or may not reduce profit, depending on the level of correlation between said instruments. Generally however, diversification does carry the partial hedging of the different means of profit. If one financial instrument profits the other loses somehow and this effectively reduces the risks produced by having all your "eggs in one basket". For me, diversification is protection, protection from ignorance. When one is not completely aware and confident of what one is doing, diversification is needed as protection, because the outcome seems blurry and unpredictable. If a person knows exactly what he or she is investi...

Hedging Expert Advisors, The Double Edge Sword

Throughout my whole experience in the area of automated trading I have encountered a fair amount of expert advisors based on hedging as well as correlation strategies. Expert advisors such as the Five Pairs Hedging Expert Advisor have attracted a lot of attention because of the theory behind them. There are also a lot of other forex systems based on this type of strategies, like the Freedom Rocks Program for example, which tries to exploit swap while hedging positions. First of all, let me explain to you the concept of hedging. To hedge, in finance, refers to the action of taking opposite or complimentary positions on different instruments to reduce risk. Hedging differs from diversification in that hedging implies a correlation between the two instruments while diversification may target completely unrelated things. As an example, in forex, buying and selling a currency pair at the same time is the most straightforward way of hedging as the profit or loss of any of the two positions ...

Viseu Open 001, One Month, Up in Profit !

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Many of you may have been following my blog regarding the testing of the Viseu Open 001 expert advisor. As we may have expected from backtesting results, this expert advisor has proven to be profitable for the time being. As I watched the expert trade for the past month, I realized that it trades in a fashion very similar to that of the Shark and Griffin expert advisors. In fact, the experts traded at exactly the same time on a few trades, which means that they have a similar signaling system, although I do consider Shark and Griffin's to be more complex. I like Viseu's trading style, it has good entries, never has consecutive losses and does accumulate profit in a very sustainable manner. I am now considering a live trading account with this ea's name on it. If I end up a three month trial period with Viseu on the green, I will let it trade live. I am very happy with this expert advisor, it may prove that we all may share this free alternative as part of our profitable for...

New Improved Forex Killer Strategy (long term trading)

Well, as many of you may know, I have developed a new forex killer strategy over the last three weeks with good results. This strategy is much simpler than the older one I had published and focuses mainly on the four major currencies. So we will only be trading EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. I also recommend forex killer users to take a look at automated trading systems, as they may prove to be more profitable and more hassle free than forex killer. The strategy uses clever money management to improve our chances of taking profit over trading positions. For this strategy, we will use our forex killer software and the daily data for the major currencies saved from metatrader. - For this strategy you will trade at the end of each trading day. - Save the daily data for each one of the major currencies in metatrader 4 - Load the data on forex killer - Calculate the results for all the currencies - We want a short and long term signal probability higher than 75%. Yes, Long AND Short...

Forex Autopilot Expert Advisor, Unbiased Review

A few weeks ago, I started to feel curious about this new expert advisor everyone seemed to be talking about. I went to it's cheesy marketing web page filled with marketing tactic ( where they say things like "75% discount, prices will come back to normal in three days!", date which always seems to be the same one after three days) and I took a try for this expert advisor which sells for a mere 89 USD. At first, let me say the things that attract forex autopilot customers. It is a very cheap expert advisor compared to most of the profitable ones, which usually cost between a 250 one time fee and a 90 dollar monthly subscription. The webpage is also filled with unneeded ways to shove the idea of richness and desire into people's minds, you see champagne, cars, etc. When it comes to putting their money where their mouth is, they still have a long way to go. I must say, I still don't have enough testing data to ensure whether it is a profitable system or not, what I ...