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Showing posts from February, 2008

Recommended Expert Advisors

My objective throughout this past few months has undoubtedly been the finding of a consistently profitable expert advisor with small draw down and a good risk to reward ratio. I have stated many times that I would settle for a 50% yearly profit with a 10 % maximal draw down and an open draw down that never exceeded 2%. That is a lot to ask for, if you ask an experienced trader, ea programmer, etc. So after this much time doing forward testing, back testing and looking closely at the trading method of various commercial expert advisors. I have to say I truly recommend... Well, I really don't recommend any of them. This could have been the expected result from the beginning, but the sad truth is, I really cannot, on good faith, recommend to any of you any of the experts, free or commercial, I have tested so far. Here is a little overview on the whys, for each of the experts. Take this comments with a lot of seriousness and remember that it is your money that is being risked in live...

Shark EA from forexeasystems a Possible System to Try

I guess many of you have noticed that I stopped forward testing many of the experts I had on my vps starting this year. The main reason is that they showed me a substantially negative behavior that made me change my opinion and in consequence, consider them not worth testing anymore. Because of this, I am actively looking for some expert advisors to test, free or commercial. I have always been interested on the Shark EA by http://forexeasystems.com/ which is the commercial ea I know with the most extensive forward testing on record (by the seller). I would like to know if any of you have tried this expert, what your results and opinion are and if you would like me to review the expert, if you think it is worth a try. I think it is but then I don't know anyone who has actually traded it. Well, I thank you again, I appreciate your feedback ! Please leave a comment with your opinion ! An updated review of my opinions about this trading system and my experiences trading it through 200...

God's Gift Expert Advisor, One Good Month

I was very reluctant about writing a review on God's Gift right now. The reason is that the results up until now could be misleading to some people and could make them believe this is the holy grail. I will then try to tell you the results as objectively as I can ( cause I do feel a little bit of excitement myself about this ea) . As you know, I always try to have my opinions as unbiased as possible although there is always some bias coming from my own expectations on the experts (Impossible to evade as a human, I think). For starters, this ea has had an amazing month. Never in the large amount of forward testing I have seen had I seen such a clean record. God's Gift has managed a perfect month. Absolutely no draw down, yet a hard stop and a trailing stop always in place. Eight wins in a row with an incredible capacity to pinpoint short term market direction. I would say, I hate this ea because I have not seen it lose any money. When you are testing an ea you have to see it win...

Best Possible Real Forex Expert Advisor

I have spent a lot of time trying to find a good expert advisor. I have searched the ins and outs of the internet, I have spoken to other reviewers, programmers, creators, etc. I have seen the "turn 100 dollars into 5 million" promises, the flash, the whistles, I have seen a good deal of what the automated trading market has to offer regarding forex expert advisors. But I have, not even once, found an expert advisor that kept it's promises. Non of the commercial experts delivered exactly what they promised. Some of them were not profitable, some of them had larger draw downs than what they said, some of them exaggerated their risk to reward ratio. All of them had something untrue about them. Making a profitable expert advisor is no hard task. Don't get me wrong, it is being profitable in the long term that is difficult. I can program 10 different expert advisors, each based on a different set of rules and I can guarantee that at least one of the ten will be profitable...

Free Expert Advisor Portoflio, Week 10, Final Words

As I had feared, the expert advisor portfolio we had been testing for the past two months didn't leave up to our expectations . The experts accumulated an abnormally high 42% draw down this week . The main reason why this happened was an incredibly horrible losing rally shown by the Ichimoku5 expert. Against all the things I would consider logical, this expert advisor sold the usd/jpy all the way up on an uptrend. It got several, almost 10, consecutive stop loss hits. My final words about this expert advisor portfolio is that it did just about as how 99% of us would have expected . Even though we may have had our hopes up sometime in the past, the expert revealed one of the many absolute truths in the forex market. Past records are no indicative of future results . But I bet that any person with an ea who has, sometime in the past, forward tested profitably for 2, 4 or more months will have no problem in selling it to the willingly believing. So beware ! If you want to look at th...

Forex Killer, More Strategy

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The past few days have been quiet moved for my Forex Killer strategy . I tested some hypothesis I had concerning the trading setup and so changed some parameters pertaining to it. I tried to test the reliability of forex killer's signals without looking at the daily trend. I have to say, quiet disastrous results . Three trades I placed on Monday with apparently high success probability (higher than 75%) failed. This, of course, is due to the fact that the signals were generated at the pinnacle of a retracement. Apparently forex killer mistakes retracements for trends when they extend for medium (4-6 hour) periods on the hourly charts . The result is a high probability signal followed by a sharp reversal which quickly triggers stop loss orders. One of the trades, however, was in agreement with the daily trend. So what happened ? It seems that the stop loss given by forex killer is suitable for the hourly ranges of less volatile pairs . More volatile pairs, like jpy crosses, trigger ...

Forex Killer, Live Trading Statement

I recently wrote a review on the Forex Killer system and suggested a trading system to accompany this product. As many of you would have liked it, I executed this strategy solely on a live account during the past week (which was very volatile because of the high news density). The results pleased me a lot (they can be seen here ). Even though conditions were harsh, I managed to get a 105 pip profit on my trading strategy . I did make two mistakes , involving entering a trade on EUR/JPY with a 69.5% probability which ended as a looser and a USD/JPY trade which I closed myself too early with a 0.51 USD loss , it would have been a 0.42 USD win if I had let it stay as is. The system was therefore capable of producing profit in excess of 200 pips but since I was testing it, I did make the above "mistakes" for the sake of experimentation. As you can see, the trailing stop does make a difference, as I had tested for the two weeks before the last one, any larger or any smaller is ...

Free Expert Advisor Portfolio, Week 9, Giving up Profits

This week has not been a very good one for our free forex expert advisor portfolio. T he expets suffered a lot of draw down owing to unstable market conditions attributable to the FOMC meetings and the NFP release . The portfolio gave back it's profits up to almost a 10% profit margin . The expert that suffered the most throughout the news sessions was Moneymaker v2, which tanked towards the bottom with each negative trade. For some reason I have not been able to activate the stoploss on this ea. Even though I have set the variables to reasonable quantities. The other experts somehow hedged Moneymaker's bad performance on the NFP , which was the greatest looser because it involved a sudden change in market direction, had the trade been the other way, the ea would have collected a juicy profit. Nevertheless, this expert advisor portfolio is far away from finished as it still retains a 5% monthly profit margin and hopefully it will recover in the following weeks which will be fr...